The view from my house looking west Sunday May 19, 2013 about 3:45 pm. I'm not going down memory lane on a tornado blog but I just couldn't do a write up today without thinking about the weather events of May, 19, 20, and then 31st 2013. The truth is I haven't really been able to talk much about it. Google it. Moving on...
The pic above is NOT the total rainfall from last month. It's the total rainfall PREDICTED between later today and next Tuesday. That's right, rainfall accumulation for the next week across the plains states from the latest GFS computer model run. It's easy to see where all the action is, right here at home. And this weather pattern hasn't really changed for the past 30 days. Long wave upper trough out west with west southwest flow over Oklahoma is breaking this drought and then some.
After next Tuesday I do see a change in the pattern. It becomes a more northwest or west northwest flow aloft instead of southwest. It's a different pattern but still potentially a wet one! So bottom line we could easily break rainfall records for the month of May in OKC as well as other monthly rainfall state records.
Between Now and then there are two main players coming in the flow. The first system arrives today into Wednesday with rain and thunderstorms. The second system is due in over the weekend into early next week with more severe weather and heavy rainfall.
Here's the upper level weather pattern late Monday night showing the first trough to our west ready to move into Oklahoma Tuesday into Wednesday. Looks like a good chance for showers and thunderstorms coming in with the main threat heavy rainfall. The threat for organized severe weather is on the low side this go around but remember flooding can be a killer especially at night when you can't see the water you could be driving into. A Flash Flood Watch has been posted for possibly 1-3 inches of flooding rainfall Tuesday into Wednesday. Please take this seriously! Take a look at the Monday night 00z NAM computer run showing the rain coming in later this afternoon.
Now here's the total rainfall accumulation ending Wednesday from the same model run. This is why I'm concerned for flash flooding. Turn around, don't drown!
Fast forward to Friday and here she comes across the mountains, the next storm system, heading toward the plains for the weekend. As this upper trough gets closer conditions will become more favorable for severe weather along with the continued threat for flash flooding. Latest guidance predicts a slow moving storm system thus rain / thunder and severe weather chances linger into next week. If you have plans this weekend not a total washout. There will be periods of dry weather but keep an eye to the sky and watch the weather closely for changing conditions, severe thunderstorms and pouring rain. By the time this system moves east of Oklahoma there's no telling how much rain will have fallen.
So far we are managing to break this drought without huge severe weather events. Lets hope this trend continues but again the severe weather chances get higher this coming weekend.
Good day, Jon