NAILING DOWN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER

Thunderstorm chances the next two days with the biggest threat on Wednesday / Wednesday night generally from the I 35 zone and east.  You folks out west stay dry with a very high fire danger!

Tuesday-Weak cool front moves southeast across Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon and stalls out across far southern and eastern Oklahoma by Tuesday evening.  Scattered sowers and t'storms could develop along this boundary by Tuesday evening from far southern Oklahoma near the Red River northeast into northwestern Arkansas.  There is a low threat for a few strong to severe thunderstorms with the main threat large hail, strong winds, lightning.  Any showers and t'storms that form could persist all night and into the wee hours Wednesday morning as the front stalls out over southeastern Oklahoma.

Wednesday-A more significant and widespread slight risk for severe thunderstorms exists across roughly the eastern half of Oklahoma from around the I 35 zone and points east, give or take 50 miles.

Here's the deal...The next upper wave in the jet stream moves across the mountains pushing yet another new cold front toward Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon.  At the same time the old cold front is breaking up allowing warm moist air to flow north into central Oklahoma.  Do you see where this is going folks?  When and where the new front meets the old front the atmosphere goes boom and we have thunderstorms!

The questions is...Where is this going to happen?  How far northwest does the gulf moisture get before the new front comes barreling in?  Where and when exactly do the thunderstorms develop? What kind / mode of severe weather will occur with the thunderstorms?  I can give reasonably good answers to these questions but I cannot be 100% sure of anything.  It's severe weather season folks so pay attention to the weather on Wednesday!

Right now I'm thinking the thunderstorms will develop 50 miles either side of a line from near Tulsa to OKC to Lawton from about 4-6pm Wednesday evening and then track east into eastern and southeastern Oklahoma Wednesday night.  So if you live west of this line across western Oklahoma you are not included in the severe weather risk.  If you live east of a Lawton to OKC to Tulsa line then thunderstorms are likely with the threat of some severe weather Wednesday evening.  OKC is right on the formation line so all we can do is watch the radar and see where it sets up and be prepared if something happens.

The main threats will be large hail, damaging winds, lightning and heavy rainfall.  This really doesn't look like a tornado situation.  However, you just can't rule out a small brief tornado or two before the thunderstorms turn into line segments or a squall line Wednesday evening.

Showers may linger behind the front through the wee hours Thursday morning before ending from west to east Thursday morning.