TORNADO WATCH FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA / TEXAS

More rain and thunderstorm chances the next few days and this is great since we still need the rainfall across western and central Oklahoma.  Got some rain last night and early this morning.  Here's the rainfall totals thanks to the fine folks over at the Oklahoma Mesonet.

Here's the set up this afternoon.  Cold front draped across Oklahoma but of more importance an outflow boundary from thunderstorms early today has pushed way down south across North Texas.  There's also a dry line out west from the outflow boundary extending south through west Texas.  As another upper level disturbance tracks east southeast out of the rockies I expect more showers and thunderstorms to develop near and along the outflow boundary and dry line later this afternoon and evening and move east southeast.  

There's an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms near these boundaries with the main threats large hail and damaging winds but a few tornadoes also possible.  Here's the area of concern from the Severe Storms Prediction Center.  I agree with this forecast.  A Tornado Watch has been issued for areas that have the best chance for getting severe weather this evening.

The latest hi res weather computer model is indicating thunderstorms forming along these boundaries and moving east southeast across southern Oklahoma and central / north Texas this evening and overnight.  As you can see central Oklahoma will be on the very northern edge of the thunderstorm complex and with relatively cool  and stable air in place the severe weather threat this far north is rather low.  As far as rainfall, it also looks like the heaviest rain will fall across southern Oklahoma and Texas overnight but lets hope for at least some rain this far north!

Still watching another upper storm system out west heading this way for Friday.  Right now it appears the upper wind pattern is favorable for the dry line to push east into eastern Oklahoma by later Friday afternoon.  This means the most likely area for severe weather could be over in eastern Oklahoma Friday.  However, this remains to be seen.  The exact placement of the dry line is crucial in determining the risk for severe weather and this depends on the exact upper level weather pattern which is still uncertain.  Stay tuned as we go into Friday for more weather updates and make sure you get the latest weather information before making plans or heading out this Friday.