Yep, a complete weather nerd. That's me posing in front of the old meteorology department building back in like 1984. Long before the National Weather Center days. That's my OU meteorology Gang of Five intramural basketball shirt. The team consisted of Mike Buresh, Mark Jackson, Lou Wicker, Jon Slater and I forgot the 5th member. Maybe it was Gary Lezak. Back then I had dreams of being a research meteorologist. LOL, what happened? Life happened.
Lets talk weather now......
Today, a cloudy day. But it sure felt great outside! Next storm system on the way but unfortunately significant widespread rainfall appears unlikely. Some severe weather seems possible but right now it's just a Slight Risk from the Severe Storms Prediction Center. And for good reason! Here's the Day 1 Risk for tonight.
Look how quiet it is tonight! Not much out there but can't rule out a few isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms overnight tonight. Tonights set up has a warm front to our south in Texas gradually breaking up and lifting north into Oklahoma by Friday morning. That combined with increasing upper jet stream flow and increasing moisture could yield scattered thunderstorms with the main threats overnight into Friday morning large hail, gusty winds, lightning and brief heavy rain. However, at this time I think coverage will be very isolated and spotty overnight.
You can see our next potential storm system taking shape over the Baja this evening. This upper trough will track directly over Oklahoma next 24 hours and normally this would be bad, very bad for Oklahoma in late April. However, a closer look shows Oklahoma may be in an area of weak atmospheric forcing this go around. That's ok with me! Don't want the severe weather but that means probably not much rain either. Not really sure how this will play out but if you believe the weather computer models the best chance for signifiant severe weather is north and south of Oklahoma. Here's the latest Day 2 Risk from the Severe Storms Prediction Center for Friday.
Generally it's a Slight Risk for severe weather from central / eastern Kansas south across eastern Oklahoma into central / eastern Texas. Decent upper wave coming in from the southwest with surface low developing and moving northeast into Kansas Friday evening. This will push the dry line quickly east into central and then eastern Oklahoma Friday afternoon. Not totally sure how far east dry line will move but right now consensus is for the dry line to shift east of the I 35 zone by late Friday afternoon. This would argue for the greatest threat for severe thunderstorms along and ahead of dry line Friday evening pushing east of I 35 over into eastern Oklahoma. However, not sure how many if any thunderstorms will form along dry line in Oklahoma that's why it's a slight risk for now. Stay tuned on this forecast, it could change up some.
Within the slight risk area most of the computer models hint at an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms to the north in eastern Kansas ahead of surface low and along warm front. I believe this is where the highest threat for tornadoes will be Friday evening in eastern KS, western MO. Also, another area of enhanced risk from far southeastern Oklahoma south across northeastern Texas due to strong southern jet streak and greater and deeper moisture influx. In between in eastern Oklahoma along the I 35 zone and east it's a slight risk as dry line pushes east.
This is because It seems Oklahoma will be in an area of weaker atmospheric forcing and thunderstorms along dry line in central and eastern Oklahoma may be tough to get going compared to the greater forcing up north near surface low and warm front and the deeper moisture to the south. Any thunderstorms that do manage to form along dry line Friday afternoon will have the potential to be significant severe weather producers with large hail, damaging winds and even tornadoes possible. Here's what the NWS OKC is thinking right now. Remember this could all change depending on many factors foreseen and unforeseen!
If you're looking for rainfall there is hope! Another slow moving cutoff low type system is predicted to drop down from the Pacific Northwest into the Southern Rockies and then track slowly east across Oklahoma Sunday night through Tuesday morning. This could be another big rain producer! Time will tell. Here's what it looks like from one of our mid range weather models. I like what I see right now!
I'll try and give the latest information as this system develops and evolves but due to a few personal issues I may be unable to give updates until next week. So.....keep an eye to the sky and stay tuned to the weather Friday evening especially if you live east of the I 35 zone. Be safe, Jon