SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK UPDATE

Here's an update on the potential for severe thunderstorms this evening and overnight.  Latest surface map from the Oklahoma Mesonet shows very weak front / trough / dry line stalled across central and eastern Oklahoma.  The air has become very unstable along and ahead of these surface boundaries but notice the winds are mainly from the south even behind the surface boundaries! This is important since it tells us that there is very little convergence along the frontal boundaries.  

At the same time the jet stream is not helping to support thunderstorms development either.  The next wave of energy moving east out of the rockies will arrive way too late and track too far north to support thunderstorms this far south in Oklahoma.  In fact, as you look at the latest visible sat pic you can tell there is actually sinking motion or subsidence occurring over Oklahoma this afternoon which is also helping to prevent thunderstorm development in Oklahoma.

You can see some thunderstorms trying to form way northeast up in MO and these could back build or develop southwest along the boundary into northeastern Oklahoma this evening.  That's where we have the best chance for severe thunderstorms to the northeast of the Tulsa area.  But right now it's looking unlikely that any thunderstorms will form more south along the boundaries into central or southern Oklahoma.  

One of our short range forecast computer models is showing thunderstorm development into northeastern Oklahoma this evening but little if any development south of there.  Here's the official Slight Risk from the Severe Storms Forecast Center and I agree with this forecast right now.  Keep in mind that the chances for thunderstorms to form further south into Oklahoma are slim but not zero and if a few thunderstorms manage to initiate they would likely go severe as the atmosphere is very unstable. Please stay tuned to the weather if you live from around OKC south and east this evening and overnight just in case!