My latest thoughts on severe weather chances next two days. Here are the official severe weather risk maps from the Storms Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma. These will be updated this afternoon and will probably change some but this is the way it is right now. You can get the very latest from their website right here.
Day1 Severe Weather Risk shows a Slight Risk across northern TX northeast into southern MO. Another Slight Risk area from KS into MN.
Most of the severe weather potential today will be focused in the central plains states as the upper wind flow pushes a cold front south into increasingly warm and humid surface air flowing north to meet the front. I expect strong to severe thunderstorms to develop this afternoon along the cold front and gradually build south southwest along the front down through Kansas. The upper level winds are quite strong and the air very unstable so main threats very large hail, damaging winds, lightning and heavy rainfall. I can't rule out tornadoes with any organized t'storms that get going especially ahead of the main line. However, the over all tornado threat is low and this will be covered by local NWS office warnings. The general Slight Risk is a good forecast right now.
More south into the OK and TX Panhandles a dry line is forming and will mix out eastward into far western Oklahoma late this afternoon / evening. There is a low chance that isolated to scattered thunderstorms could develop along the dry line and move east into far western Oklahoma this evening with large hail and damaging winds the main threat. So areas of far western and northwestern Oklahoma should monitor the weather for possible isolated severe thunderstorms this evening. Any thunderstorms that form out west should tend to weaken after sunset. However, a low level jet should develop later tonight so it's not out of the question that isolated thunderstorms could maintain or redevelop through the wee hours Thursday morning as they move into central Oklahoma. Something to watch for tonight!
The other Slight Risk area is from boundaries left over from last nights thunderstorms and also an upper level disturbance tracking from Texas east northeast into Arkansas. Thunderstorms could reform across portions of northern TX, SE OK, AR into southern MO. The main threats large hail, damaging winds, lightning and heavy rainfall.
Day2 Severe Weather Risk shows a Slight Risk from far NE OK into IN. However, this is subject to change and the Slight Risk area could be moved back west closer to central Oklahoma. Time will tell.
Here's my thinking....The core of the upper level winds, jet stream, shifts south into Oklahoma on Thursday but at the same time the surface features shove east as well. The question is how far east will the cold front, trough, dry line go? I think this is up for debate since there is a stronger upper air disturbance coming from the west in the flow across the rockies that could pull the surface boundaries back west closer to central Oklahoma by Thursday evening. Either way, the cold front, trough, dry line stalls out across eastern Oklahoma Thursday as the upper disturbance approaches from the west. Conditions will become very unstable along and to the east of these surface boundaries and later Thursday afternoon / evening the potential for severe thunderstorm development could become realized. The upper disturbance pushes yet another cold front southeast meeting the old stalled boundary Thursday evening somewhere in central or eastern Oklahoma possibly producing more thunderstorms. So basically central and eastern Oklahoma could be under the risk for severe thunderstorms Thursday evening. The front sweeps across the area Thursday night and Good Friday is windy and much cooler with a few showers possible. Strong north winds behind the front on Friday could cause issues for any outside plans with temps in the 50s! Please stay tuned to the weather especially Thursday evening in eastern Oklahoma!