MORNING WX UPDATE, COMPLICATED MESS

Good morning this is turning into a complicated mess in terms of trying to forecast the exact details of the weather today.  Thunderstorms have been moving across far northwestern Oklahoma and the Panhandle overnight and this has layed out an outflow boundary across northwestern Oklahoma not too far northwest of OKC.  Additional thunderstorms are already developing in the Texas Panhandle moving quickly northeast toward western Oklahoma and this will further complicate the forecast.  

The Severe Storms Prediction Center continues with a Moderate Risk for Severe weather across a large portion of the central and southern plains including much of western and central Oklahoma as you can see from the graphic here.

The next map is the tornado probabilities from the Severe Storms Prediction Center.

Here's the surface weather map from the Oklahoma Mesonet this morning.  It shows the outflow boundary just northwest of OKC.  These are the fine details that we can't forecast until right now. This outflow boundary could play a big role in what happens later today.  The boundary could be a focus for flash flooding rains as t'storms could train along the boundary.  Plus. enhanced wind shear across the boundary could play a role in increasing the tornado potential near and along the boundary.  Then of course we have the dry line coming in from the west with additional t'storms likely forming on this boundary later this afternoon.  Other factors to consider are that this is a very strong negative tilt upper storm coming in today but cloud cover and rain cooled air could off set some of that.  I think you can begin to see that this in not a clear situation and is rather messy and complicated.

Look at all the cloud cover that could limit instability and lower severe storm potential.

However, this is such a strong system. set up that cloud cover and rain cooled air may limit but not prevent significant high end severe weather today.  There is a very strong upper disturbance coming into northwestern Oklahoma this evening and many of the conditions for very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will be present despite the cloud cover and possible rain cooled air.

Bottom line this is a complex and messy severe weather situation unfolding right now.  There is a significant threat for high end severe weather today including the possibilities of tornadoes. Please, as always, you should already have a safety plan ready to go.  Then, pay close attention to the weather and take action when weather warnings are issued!

Jon