Hello everyone...Lingering showers and thunderstorms overnight should be ending from west to east on this Thursday morning. Here's the latest HRRR hi res computer model showing the rain moving east of OKC by 7am Thursday. By Thursday afternoon all of Oklahoma is between waves in the jet stream with partly cloudy skies and warm conditions. Highs 70s with lower 80s out west! Get outside!!!
The weather maps at around 20,000ft tell the weather story well. You can see that one wave moving to our northeast but look at that big upper trough coming in from the west! That's the next storm system for Oklahoma.
Here's the pattern by Saturday evening. Notice that big trough heads east right into the central and southern Plains. This means increasing chances for severe weather and heavy rainfall again starting on Friday but really coming in Saturday. Looks like another severe weather event on Saturday across the plains. Yep, Tornado Alley lights up again!
Lets take a look at the surface pattern valid at the same time, Saturday evening. Notice the surface low cranking up to our northwest with a dry line extending south across the western Panhandles into Texas. With that surface pattern and that upper flow it's all systems go for severe weather on Friday and especially Saturday.
The following maps show the severe weather risk from the Severe Storms Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma for the next several days.
Thursday we are between waves of low pressure.
Friday shows the influence of the next wave coming in from the rockies. There could be showers and t'storms Friday morning and then the dry line could become more active with severe thunderstorms Friday evening out west. We'll see how that plays out.
The main upper trough comes in Saturday and depending on many factors Saturday has the potential for a significant severe weather day. Once again showers and thunderstorms are possible in the morning and then more thunderstorms could form on the dry line out west Saturday afternoon / evening and track northeast from there.
The weather pattern is similar to last weekend but not identical so I'm not expecting the weather to play out the exact same way as last weekend. Remember, as I always say, no two storm system are the same, no two snow flakes are identical and meteorologists are not created equal.
Friday and Saturday might be big severe weather days with tornadoes possible! That's all I'm willing to say right now. Still too far out for specific details. Flooding continues a threat as well!
Have a great Thursday,