CHANGING FORECAST, IT'S COMPLICATED

Sorry this is way late but I was waiting on the new data.  It's in now and there are some changes!!!

Storm system not over yet.  2 more days to go with threat of severe weather and heavy rainfall. Saturday and Sunday could be big severe weather days depending on how things play out.  But there are some doubts entering my mind for Saturday.  Also, a Flash Flood Watch remains up and running this weekend with the threat for more heavy rainfall combined with saturated grounds.

Let's take a look back on the recent rainfall across Oklahoma from the Oklahoma mesonet.  We've gone from drought to flood!  Very Impressive!!

24 Hour Rainfall

7 Day Rainfall

60 Day Rainfall

But this forecast is not set in stone!  Here's where things get complicated...Latest data tonight continues to indicated more showers and thunderstorms developing out west and moving into western and then central Oklahoma this morning and lingering into the afternoon.  If this indeed happens it will complicate the forecast for later this afternoon / evening in terms of widespread severe weather.  Here's one of our hi res computer forecast models the HRRR showing the thunderstorms developing and moving into western and central Oklahoma this morning.  The severe weather risk for later this afternoon and evening depends on many things including to what extent the morning rain lingers and cools down the atmosphere thus decreasing the instability. Time will tell how this plays out!  However, the Severe Storms Prediction Center is taking note of this new development and has already down graded the severe weather threat somewhat for portions of the area.  

Here's the brand new maps!

Day 1 risk Saturday very complicated!! Downgraded slightly mainly due to rain cooled air from morning thunderstorms.  Still a significant severe weather threat with thunderstorms forming along dry line in western Oklahoma later in the day and then tracking northeast quickly into central Oklahoma by Saturday evening. Main threats large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.  I want to point out that there is some question as to the extent of thunderstorms that form along dry line in western Oklahoma later in the day.  Not a done deal here!!  The coverage might be low.  But again still a significant risk!  Also, the thunderstorms that form this morning could produce severe weather especially as they move into eastern Oklahoma later this afternoon.  So Saturday is a COMPLICATED WEATHR DAY!  All modes of severe weather possible at any time almost any place so watch the weather closely!

On Sunday the upper storm system finally begins to shift east and this pushes a cold front slowly southeast from Kansas into Oklahoma.  Expecting more strong to severe thunderstorms to form along cold front as the front moves into central Oklahoma and eastern Oklahoma Sunday afternoon / evening.  Main threats large hail and damaging winds but can't totally rule out tornadoes.

This continues to be a dual threat with severe weather and also flash flooding!  A Flash Flood Watch continues up and running through the weekend.  Any organized thunderstorms will likely produce flash flooding since the grounds are already saturated Saturday and Sunday so be advised!