Hello everyone! Unfortunately, my forecast is on track. The severe weather risk is increasing for Friday, Saturday and gradually shifting east across into eastern Oklahoma Sunday. All modes of severe weather seem likely from giant hail and damaging straight line winds to significant long track tornadoes. We don't know the exact details yet since we don't know exactly how the atmosphere is going to set up yet but we know the risk is dangerous! Here's the official severe storm risk from the Severe Storms Prediction Center as it stands on this late Thursday night. Obviously, this is going to change some as new data comes in and we'll try to better define where the greatest risk is as time goes. Severe weather risk for Friday Day 1. Severe risk for Saturday Day 2. Severe risk for Sunday Day 4 and beyond. Tonight's new 00z NAM data is in and here's the forecast through Sunday morning. I'm really worried about Friday afternoon / evening as warm front forms and moves north across central and northern Oklahoma. As warm moist air surges north with strong wind fields and through a highly sheared environment significant tornadoes are possible! Watch the weather very closely Friday afternoon / evening! Then as main storm system moves in Saturday another significant risk for high end severe weather. The risk shoves east over into eastern Oklahoma / western Arkansas during the day on Sunday. Here's the rainfall forecast through Sunday morning. More locally heavy rain could cause more flash flooding. It's literally going from drought to flood in potions of our area. Pay close attention to all warnings for severe weather and flooding next few days and take safety precautions and action if you are in the path. It could save your life!
14 Comments
Jon
5/7/2015 04:18:01 pm
Thanks a lot!
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Jon
5/7/2015 04:46:16 pm
Your welcome. Thanks for reading!
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i am a stupid idiot
5/7/2015 05:05:14 pm
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i am a stupid idiot
5/7/2015 05:08:06 pm
I meant to comment in that last post. I was just going to say thanks for the update.
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Jon
5/7/2015 05:14:00 pm
Thanks for the words! We're all stupid sometimes. Have a great night!
Jignesh
5/7/2015 06:39:13 pm
Thanks Jon for the Alert!
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Jon
5/8/2015 12:06:04 am
Your welcome!
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Sean O
5/7/2015 07:34:50 pm
Thank you. I prefer your info. I prefer you post it in casual wear instead of a suit, as well. 😊
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Haylee
5/7/2015 10:36:49 pm
Thank you for your down to earth honesty. I especially appreciate how calm you remain in times where there is enough hysteria going around.
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Jon
5/8/2015 03:05:04 pm
And I appreciate you. Thanks Haylee
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Dee
5/8/2015 12:01:35 am
I am traveling home from OKC to Colorado Springs today (Friday). I can't leave until around 1 PM. I am debating going up through Kansas to avoid the weather. Any idea if that's the best course of action? I can't find any information on when these storms will hit..
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Jon
5/8/2015 12:12:03 am
Dee, It's a tough call today as far as when and where thunderstorms develop. If I were making that trip I would go straight up north on I 35 and then west in Kansas. If t'stoms form early in southwest Oklahoma and move northeast it may be a wet and stormy drive so watch for flooding. The greatest severe weather chances might be central and southern Oklahoma so going north might keep you safer. But again I don't exactly know how this will play out that's why you're not hearing much. But I would go north and ponding of water could be your worst threat. Ge safe!
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Jon
5/8/2015 02:04:23 pm
I love reading your blogs, keep up the great work man!
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Jon
5/8/2015 03:04:13 pm
Thanks Jon!
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