Hello everyone! Unfortunately, my forecast is on track. The severe weather risk is increasing for Friday, Saturday and gradually shifting east across into eastern Oklahoma Sunday. All modes of severe weather seem likely from giant hail and damaging straight line winds to significant long track tornadoes. We don't know the exact details yet since we don't know exactly how the atmosphere is going to set up yet but we know the risk is dangerous! Here's the official severe storm risk from the Severe Storms Prediction Center as it stands on this late Thursday night. Obviously, this is going to change some as new data comes in and we'll try to better define where the greatest risk is as time goes.
Severe weather risk for Friday Day 1.
Severe risk for Saturday Day 2.
Severe risk for Sunday Day 4 and beyond.
Tonight's new 00z NAM data is in and here's the forecast through Sunday morning. I'm really worried about Friday afternoon / evening as warm front forms and moves north across central and northern Oklahoma. As warm moist air surges north with strong wind fields and through a highly sheared environment significant tornadoes are possible! Watch the weather very closely Friday afternoon / evening! Then as main storm system moves in Saturday another significant risk for high end severe weather. The risk shoves east over into eastern Oklahoma / western Arkansas during the day on Sunday.
Here's the rainfall forecast through Sunday morning. More locally heavy rain could cause more flash flooding. It's literally going from drought to flood in potions of our area. Pay close attention to all warnings for severe weather and flooding next few days and take safety precautions and action if you are in the path. It could save your life!