EXPECTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 4PM!

Here's the afternoon weather update...There is a slight to moderate risk for severe thunderstorms across portions of central and eastern Oklahoma today and tonight.

Here's the 1pm surface map I plotted up showing a weak surface low forming just west of OKC with a warm front extending east northeast, a dry line to the south southwest, and a cold front dropping southeast on the back side to the west.  Where all three of these fronts intersect is called the triple point and the most likely area for severe weather will be just east of the triple point and extending east from there up into northeastern Oklahoma.  Another area of possible more isolated severe thunderstorms could form south along and just ahead of the dry line.  

I'm expecting rapid thunderstorm development between 4pm - 6pm and then moving east into eastern Oklahoma tonight.  The main threat is very large hail, damaging winds, lightning and locally heavy rainfall.  I can't rule out a brief small tornado or two before thunderstorms evolve into line segments or a squall line.  The most likely area for a brief small tornado is with any thunderstorms that get organized to the east of the triple point and then moving east from there. Again, the tornado threat is low but not zero.  I think very large hail and highs winds is the primary threat.  

Late this afternoon / evening an upper level disturbance coming east out of the rockies will move across Oklahoma and help to trigger thunderstorms along these boundaries.  The air ahead of these fronts / boundaries is becoming unstable with temps in the 70s / 80s and dew points in the 50s / lower 60s.  So that's why I'm expecting rather explosive thunderstorm development this evening after 4pm and then all the thunderstorms move east into eastern Oklahoma tonight.

The threat for severe weather will end once the cold front passes your location but showers may linger behind the front into tomorrow morning with strong north winds and much cooler temps also behind the front.  A wind advisory has been posted for western Oklahoma tonight as north winds 30-45 mph with higher gusts could cause blowing dust.

Stay weather aware this evening and tonight!