WHAT, COMPUTER GUIDANCE CONSENSUS? INSANE!

That last system a dud as far as rainfall amounts along and west of the I 35 zone.  Some decent amounts about 1/4 inch to 1/2 inch of rain on average across eastern Oklahoma as you can see thanks to the Oklahoma Mesonet.  Love that Mesonet stuff.  We are so lucky to have such a well organized mesonet staff!

Lets move on to the next system.  I've posted tonights new 00z data from the NAM and GFS forecast models showing total rainfall through Friday morning.  Notice something very unusual. Both GFS and NAM guidance look similar!! Oh my gosh we have model consensus!!!  I don't know what to do.  I'm besides myself!  Both show good rain chances as this next upper wave and surface cold front move across the state.  They also both hint at the heaviest rain occurring in the Oklahoma Panhandle and northwestern Oklahoma early Thursday and then another spike in heavier rainfall Thursday evening in south central and southeastern Oklahoma.   That being said I'm still not sold on widespread significant rainfall for everyone with this system.  Been there, done that.  Computer model consensus doesn't necessarily main anything.

It's a complicated mess to forecast.  The main upper air disturbance hangs back in the southwestern states and never really ejects out into the southern plains until later in the weekend. However, a small piece of jet stream energy breaks off and moves east across Oklahoma and that pushes a surface cold front southeast across Oklahoma during Thursday.  So the combination of upper energy and the surface cold front will bring rain and thunderstorm chances across the entire area!  Good news! I think the forecast models are on to the heaviest rainfall starting early Thursday morning in the Oklahoma Panhandle and northwestern Oklahoma and then evolving east southeast into central and southern Oklahoma by Thursday evening.  This will generally be rain with embedded thunderstorms especially behind the front in the cooler air.  As the front approaches southern Oklahoma it will encounter better instability and this is where we have the best chance for heavy thunderstorms from southern Oklahoma into North Texas Thursday evening along and closer to the front.  With this all being said, it's not a 100% done deal it's going to rain everywhere and it's possible that the heaviest rainfall jumps over central Oklahoma as morning rain fades and evening rain reforms down south.  However, some indications that a solid area of rain could form north of the front Thursday evening right over central Oklahoma.  What ever happens at least we have a decent chance at rain in Oklahoma and it will be fun to watch!  I put rain chances at any one place around 70% Thursday.  Good luck!