HOW DO I FORECAST WHERE THUNDERSTORMS GO?

Well, thunderstorms finally did form and here is the latest forecast concerning the thunderstorms in western Oklahoma and what lies ahead for tonight.  Here is the latest radar loop from southwestern and western Oklahoma showing the thunderstorms moving east southeast and actually starting to turn more southeast.  Click here for a quick look at the radar loop as of around 9pm this evening.

Looking at the two maps I posted above I can try and make an educated guess, or what I call a forecast, as to what is going to happen overnight.  The first map is the 9pm surface weather from the Oklahoma Mesonet.  This shows a weak surface boundary running from west central Oklahoma east southeast to the south of OKC across into southeastern Oklahoma.  It's very hard to define but I've been looking at this stuff for so long I've developed a knack for quick realtime weather analysis.  In short, I can see it.

The second map is showing the upper wind flow up around 25 thousand feet or so.  This is not a forecast but this is the verified wind flow at 6pm this evening.

Now, combing the two maps together I can come to a reasonable conclusion that the thunderstorms in western Oklahoma will move east southeast and eventually turn even more to the right and possibly track southeast.  This is following the surface front shown on the Oklahoma Mesonet maps as well being consistent with the steering currents associated with a west northwest flow aloft of around 40- 80 mph.

So, my forecast is for the most intense thunderstorms to track east southeast and mainly stay just to the west and south of the immediate OKC Metro Area tonight.  Although the OKC Metro will be on the northern edge of the heaviest thunderstorms. This means that areas west and south of OKC could get some pretty tough thunderstorms if they hold together and there is some potential for severe weather with the main threats large hail, strong winds, lightning and locally heavy rainfall.  

Once again keep in mind that this is just a forecast and sometimes these thunderstorm complexes have a mind of their own and when that happens there's no man, no woman, no meteorologist that can help.  Sometimes the t'storms just fizzle away which is possible.  Sometimes they keep going. Just watch the radar with me folks!