The weather maps showing almost the same weather pattern more or less continuing right on through next week and then some! Upper level long wave trough over the rockies brings more waves of heavy rainfall and severe weather to the plains. Keep on knocking down the drought!
After a nice break with delightful weather the pattern shifts quickly back to a stormy southwest flow! The map above shows the upper level weather pattern for Wednesday evening. You can clearly make out the next short wave moving out of the southwestern U.S. northeast across Oklahoma Wednesday into early Thursday morning. A Flash Flood Watch already up as this system brings more heavy rainfall to Oklahoma on Wednesday. You can never rule out severe weather but right now it appears heavy rain is the main threat for Wednesday. Stay tuned on this forecast!
Here's the latest short range hi res forecast model showing rain and thunder moving back into Oklahoma on Wednesday. Here's a look at another hi res model predicting rainfall totals through Wednesday night at midnight. This is why a Flash Flood Watch has already been issued. If this actually pans out this is the kind of event that could lead to potentially dangerous flooding!
As we look into the mid range forecast for later this week and this coming weekend we see a very similar upper weather pattern that we just went through. Again, it's a long wave upper trough in the rockies. I blogged on this about three weeks ago! When you have a long wave trough established to the west it's a stormy pattern. Count on more chances for severe weather and significant rainfall developing again as early as Friday and then really coming in Saturday into Sunday. Then maybe another threat Tuesday / Wednesday of next week.
Here's the upper trough swinging in Saturday.
Obviously we don't know the exact details this far out. Just like this past week the weather won't go down exactly the way I describe here. However, I'm telling you now there will be severe weather and heavy rainfall in Oklahoma Friday / Saturday so get ready here she comes! Look back at climatology this time of year with this kind of pattern and what do you get, that's right, tornadoes.
I'm really glad the National Weather Service is being more aggressive this far out this time around. It's Oklahoma, prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
I usually don't post the NWS 7-day forecast but what the heck, can't argue with this! Good night.