All right all you night owls, here is the latest. Next storm system is slowing down and tracking more north. However the over all forecast isn't changing that much.
The best chance for thunderstorms still looks like Wednesday evening. Here is the change. Now it appears the greatest coverage of thunderstorms will be the further north you go with less coverage the further south! So the best chance for severe weather could be northern Oklahoma and points north northeast from there Wednesday evening with less coverage and more isolated thunderstorms south into central Oklahoma. But still any thunderstorms that develop could go severe with large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes possible.
Lets take a look at the brand new risk maps from the Severe Storms Prediction Center!
DAY1 TUESDAY SEVERE WEATHER RSIK
DAY2 WEDNESDAY SEVERE WEATHER RSIK
Here is the predicted position of the upper storm system at 1am this morning. You can see the closed circles just off the west coast, that's the storm! Lets track it shall we.....
Here it is Wednesday evening in the central rockies. This position is slower and further north than most earlier forecasts. This means the atmospheric forcing to initiate thunderstorms may track more north and possibly arrive later than earlier forecasts.
Here is the upper storm system by Thursday evening. It's in Iowa and moving east from there. The severe weather threat will be pushing east of our area and into Arkansas, eastern Kansas and points east from there by Thursday afternoon.
What does this mean for Oklahoma? Not much has changed really from my forecast over the past few days. With a slower and more north track conditions may not be as favorable for widespread severe weather as earlier thought but there is still a risk for severe weather with the best chance still being Wednesday evening. This is why I didn't go bonkers! With the system so far away ya know the forecast is going to change some and it did. Still a risk for severe weather but the greatest risk may end up being over far northern Oklahoma, southern and southeastern Kansas and points northeast from there on Wednesday. Then off to the east on Thursday.
Take a look at a couple of maps I put together real quick.
The first map is for Tuesday afternoon / evening. Only a very low chance for isolated thunderstorms along and ahead of dry line in central Oklahoma. However, if any t'storms develop they will likely become severe with large hail, damaging winds and even a tornado threat. But again chances only about 10%. Notice there is a better chance for t'storms to the north northeast into Kansas Tuesday.
The next map is for Wednesday afternoon / evening. As the main upper storm system tracks into the plains chances for thunderstorms will be increasing. I expect at least isolated thunderstorms to develop along the dry line as it pushes into central Oklahoma by late Wednesday afternoon / evening. Since new data has the upper storm tracking more north it now appears that the most likely area for thunderstorms to form is in northern Oklahoma and points north northeast from there. As you can see on my map this is where I've indicated a 50% chance or greater for thunderstorms. Notice south into central OK along and ahead of dry line only expecting isolated thunderstorms and chances running only about 30%. This is because it appears the atmospheric forcing seems to be tracking more north. However, any thunderstorms that develop on Wednesday have the potential to produce severe weather with the main threats very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.
So really on the big picture the forecast hasn't changed all that much. The main change is that the coverage of severe thunderstorms will be greatest the more north you go with more isolated thunderstorms and less coverage the more south. Regardless please stay tuned to the weather as this is a changing situation. In Oklahoma if you don't pay attention to the weather this time of year it could cost you big time!