That's what Dr Howard "CB" Bluestein from the University of Oklahoma would say as he was looking at the latest weather data printing out on the Difax Machine while stomping his foot and eating an apple. "Fun and games in the southern plains". He would shout this as he looked at the data coming in showing a classic severe weather pattern setting up for Oklahoma. That was back in 1983 and you could mutter such words without consequences. Nowadays you have to be more careful, considerate, political in your choice of words. I know that, so please don't take this the wrong way. I know and have witnessed first hand and second hand through my years the devastating affects of Oklahoma weather on peoples lives. Please don't leave comments suggesting I am being inconsiderate to folks who have been impacted by forces of nature I have no control over. If you know me then you know my intentions are sincere. It's just the way it was back in 1983. We were young scientists studying the weather and we got excited when we could leave the school room and head out into the most incredible classroom of all time, the outdoors. We got excited when we had a chance to chase storms and yes it was FUN! Why are people these days so scared to admit storm chasing is fun? All storm chasers have fun and that's probably the main reason they chase storms. Yea yea yea they do it to saves lives and or advance science but really they do it for other reasons that I'll just call "fun".
Above I've posted a couple of long range weather maps from one of our weather computer models. This more or less shows the UPPER LEVEL weather pattern predicted to develop starting next week. It's all about following the development and movement of long wave troughs and ridges that move across the United States. I know that most who read this are not meteorologist so I'm not going into great detail but in a nut shell the front side of troughs are associated with stormy weather. Notice how on the first map a trough moves into the central rockies with southwest flow over the southern plains. This is a stormy pattern for Oklahoma starting middle of next week. Also notice the trough just off the Pacific Northwest Coast.
Now look at the second map. Four days later the first trough moves east but the second trough drops southeast and takes the place of the first trough across the rockies and keeps the southern plains in southwest flow aloft. Basically it appears the pattern hasn't changed.
In other words a LONG WAVE TROUGH seems to be setting up over the rockies starting next week and lasting for at least two weeks. This is the kind of pattern Howie Bluestein was probably looking at back in 1983 when he said "fun and games in the southern plains". This is the kind of pattern that will bring the chance for severe thunderstorms to the plains on a daily basis starting middle of next week and lasting until the long wave trough breaks down. So I'm not being disrespectful to the folks impacted by devastating weather I'm just pointing out that a classic severe weather pattern could be forming and that storm chasers from all walks of life and from all parts of the world will be gassing up and heading to Oklahoma next few weeks. It's Oklahoma tourism, isn't it? Hopefully we'll save some lives and advance science on the way.
FYI this kind of pattern brings daily chances for severe thunderstorms depending on how each individual day sets up. The long wave trough puts us in a stormy pattern so now we'll be tracking the smaller scale disturbances that rotate through the long wave trough to determine what days have the higher risks and where and when on those days the threat is greatest.
Remember not all days will have thunderstorms, some days will have a greater risk than others, no two storm systems are the same, no two snow fakes are identical and meteorologists are NOT created equal.
Stay safe everyone and stay tuned to the weather as always.....