FLOODING RAINS THIS WEEKEND!

They don't make music or movies like this anymore.  Do yourself a favor and click on this link and just for a moment or two try to forget  2015 and day dream about life in 1952.  I do all the time.

Back to reality and another Flash Food Watch has been posted through this upcoming weekend. The orientation of the watch will change as new data comes in and as we see how the rain is developing but you get the point.  More heavy rainfall on the way and it won't take much to cause additional flooding.  Here's the latest as of late Wednesday night from the National Weather Service in OKC.  Again, the exact watch outline as well as the area of greatest rainfall will change up some but the story remains the same.

Lets take a look at the weather maps as of Wednesday night.  Yet another upper level trough of low pressure is moving right toward Oklahoma as we go through the weekend.  It's a rather slow moving trough and rain chances will linger into Monday before finally shifting off to the east.

The position of this next trough is somewhat different than the last several storm systems.  Notice the flow is more southernly at all levels and the trough has a more neutral tilt to it.  What I'm trying to say is that this system will emphasize heavy rainfall over severe weather.  That being said there will be a threat for severe weather but the heavy rainfall threat is of more concern the way things look right now.

Here's the surface weather map predicted over the weekend.  You can see the upper flow and the surface flow are both more or less from the south.  It's a straight connection to the gulf which means this system will be loaded with moisture.  At the same time the dry line will not come east very quickly so I'm worried that Oklahoma could experience a significant flooding event as we go through this weekend.  

Look at the heavy rain bands predicted Saturday into Sunday.  As I stated this system certainly has the potential to produce flash flooding rains.  But where will the bands set up?  Will the heavy rain set up to the west, to the east or over central Oklahoma like you see on the forecast?  Will there be significant severe weather or just marginal severe stuff?  I can't answer those fine details this far out.  All I can do is give a heads up for the possibility of flooding rains and severe weather with rounds of thunderstorms right on through the weekend.  So that's what I'm doing.  I will try my best to zero in on the details as we get closer to the event.

One more thing, it probably won't be a total washout weekend.  Expect some dry time so don't cancel out door plans just yet.  But you better have those back up plans ready to go.  Plus, as always, have a severe weather safety plan ready to go if needed.  Lets try and have fun this holiday weekend but at the same time lets try and make it back safely! 

Jon