And just like that Friday into early Saturday morning is the last chance for significant widespread rainfall in what could be a week or two. Looking at all the weather maps the last few days it's becoming clear, with high confidence, that a dry period is on the way starting Saturday afternoon. OKC and Tulsa should go at least a week and maybe more without rain. Let's take a look at the situation.
The pattern actually starts changing Friday (pictured above) as the southwest flow aloft shifts to a west northwest flow as a ridge of high pressure aloft builds out west. There's a small disturbance embedded in the west northwest flow that tracks east southeast across Oklahoma and this pushes a cold front across Oklahoma Friday night into Saturday morning. There's a decent chance for thunderstorms along the front as it moves southeast across Oklahoma Friday into Saturday morning.
Checkout the map posted above showing the upper flow by Saturday afternoon. You can see the small upper disturbance is moving east of Oklahoma and the upper ridge is moving in. Say goodbye to the rain for a while if this forecast holds true.
Here's the Sunday forecast. The upper disturbance is over Arkansas and moving slowly southeast. It will more than likely stall out along the gulf coast and get cut off from the main flow as the upper ridge builds into Oklahoma.
Yep, just as I suspected. Here's a look at the Monday upper level weather pattern. The small upper disturbance is cutting off from the flow over the gulf coast states and the upper ridge over Mexico and New Mexico is building into Oklahoma. The rain chances might not be zero in this pattern but this is a MAJOR change in the over all pattern and a much drier one! I'm not saying this is the summer death ridge, way too early for that, just recognizing a pattern change that should end the deluge and bring dry weather to Oklahoma for at least a week, maybe more. Eventually, that upper trough out west moves east and breaks down the ridge and it rains again. So the storm season isn't over yet but a drier, calmer week or more on the way.
Here's one of our hi res computer models showing the cold front entering northwestern Oklahoma Friday afternoon. Note the thunderstorms forming on the front!
The front reaches OKC / Tulsa area around midnight Friday night / wee hours Saturday morning and the computer shows showers and thunderstorms with it.
By 7am Saturday morning the front is moving across southeastern Oklahoma with showers and thunderstorms. After the front moves across your location the rain is done for a while.
Now, will this prediction actually happen? I don't know for sure, that's why we play the game...