Lets play a game. Will it rain? All of the short term and mid range weather models are pointing to a significant rainfall event across portions of Oklahoma but it's very hard for me to forecast so much rain with this long term drought underway. However, it certainly looks promising when you look at the weather data!
Here's just one of the many forecast models I use to forecast weather and this is the upper level weather pattern forecast for later this afternoon. The important features to watch are the upper low over the southern rockies and energy coming into the northwest coast.
Fast forward to Tuesday afternoon and the same forecast model is showing the upper low over the southern rockies slowly moving northeast into the southern plains as the new energy dives southeast into the central rockies. The new upper energy is kicking the upper low over the southern rockies out into the southern plains and this can be a very wet weather pattern for Oklahoma.
Posted above are two forecast models showing rainfall totals through Tuesday with that first upper low slowly coming into Oklahoma. Both models indicate the potential for heavy rainfall over portions of Oklahoma especially western, southern and central sections of the state. It looks like the heaviest rain falls starting late Sunday night and continues on and off through Tuesday.
This doesn't look like a big severe weather situation but you can never rule out isolated severe thunderstorms this time of year. The Severe Storms Prediction Center has a Slight Risk going for northwestern Oklahoma today and tonight with the main threats large hail, damaging winds, lightning and locally heavy rain.
Looking out further into the future as the second upper storm system approaches from the west middle and later parts of next week conditions may again become more favorable for thunderstorms and severe weather across the southern plains. Wednesday through Friday of next week could be active with strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall possibilities!
Of course the big question is....Will it really rain in the drought stricken areas of the southern plains this time? How many times have we had chances and it doesn't pan out? Don't be surprised if we only get half of what some of those forecast models are predicting. However, I must admit this is the most promising weather situation in a long time and the fact that it's coming in our rainy season increases our chances! I'll be praying, hoping and watching the radar with everybody else! Good luck Oklahoma!