Portions of the Slight Risk upgraded to Moderate Risk! If you've been following this blog this is no surprise. Much of our area is under a Slight to Moderate Risk for severe thunderstorms starting later this afternoon and ending in the wee hours Thursday morning. I'm going to try and keep this simple and mainly follow the Oklahoma City National Weather Service on this. You all know I make my own predictions and I could nit pick here and there but on the day of a potential big weather event I believe in one consistent message all things considered. Here are the latest maps from NWS OKC as well as the Severe Storms Prediction Center. Follow these with a sense of urgency today!
These maps will change slightly as things evolve but you get the general idea. Once thunderstorms begin to develop then follow the warnings. The watches and risk areas don't really matter after the event begins. Follow the latest warnings and take cover in your severe weather safety shelter or safe spot if you are in the path. By now communication with all family members and loved ones should be complete and everyone should be on the same page. Use common sense folks and be safe!
Here's a visible sat pic from early this afternoon. This is not a classic slam dunk forecast whatsoever! There are a few complicating issues but to keep this simple I'm not going into the details.
I'm expecting some clearing this afternoon as first batch of non severe thunder moves east. New thunderstorms should develop along and ahead of frontal boundary in northwestern Oklahoma and dry line extending south through western Oklahoma. Thunderstorms will track east northeast across Oklahoma this evening and tonight with all modes of severe weather possible. The greatest coverage of severe thunderstorms should be in northern Oklahoma with less coverage and more isolated severe thunderstorms further south through central and southern Oklahoma. The most likely area for dangerous severe weather including giant hail and significant tornadoes is closer to the moderate risk zone in northern Oklahoma but isolated severe thunderstorms along dry line more south could also produce high end severe weather. Bottom line just stay weather aware folks!
The severe weather threat shifts east into far eastern Oklahoma and points east from there tomorrow.