Good afternoon everyone! As you know I am no longer employed as a meteorologist so I don't have access and therefor the ability to make my own weather graphics to help explain the weather. However, I still have access to all the same weather data to make my forecast in my head. So in order to illustrate my thinking I pull graphics from many different sources. I try to use the sources that I believe are closest to what I'm thinking and I make sure and give credit to those sources. I just want to make it clear that the forecasts on this page are my exclusive predictions but the graphics used are from many different sources but it's still my forecast!
So lets get on to the weather...Here's the visible sat pic from this afternoon and the surface weather conditions from the Oklahoma Mesonet.
Gusty south winds has transported low level moisture from the gulf of mexico north into central and eastern Oklahoma. The dry line is located in far western Oklahoma and will mix out another 50 miles east with afternoon heating. Another boundary, weak cold front, to our north will drop slowly south and approach northern Oklahoma tomorrow and stall out. At this time thunderstorm chances on either of these boundaries will remain very limited due to lack of any atmospheric forcing. Once again you will here lots of talk about a CAP but the truth is there just isn't any trigger and or forcing to develop significant convection today or tomorrow.
I can't rule out isolated to scattered t'storms near the dry line or the cold front next couple of days but chances are low. However, if a storm were to develop it will have the potential to produce severe weather with the main threats large hail, high winds and lightning. Here are the severe weather risk maps for today and tomorrow from the National Weather Service in OKC.
Today: Marginal severe weather risk along dry line western / central Oklahoma.
Tuesday: Marginal severe weather risk along dry line and weak cold front.
Here's the upper flow this afternoon showing strong west southwest flow over Oklahoma but the lack of any significant upper waves means little if any forcing for organized thunderstorms. This is why it's a marginal risk for severe weather the next couple of days.
However, this all changes Wednesday! Do you see that big circle just off the west coast? That's a strong upper wave which is predicted to move east into the central and southern plains Wednesday into Thursday morning. The chances for more widespread severe weather will increase as this feature tracks toward Oklahoma Wednesday.
Here's the risk map for Wednesday from the NWS OKC showing a Slight Risk covering a large part of central Oklahoma. As the upper wave approaches Wednesday afternoon / evening conditions will become much more favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop along and near the dry line and move east across the state. The main threats will be very large hail, damaging winds, lightning and tornadoes. This could be upgraded to a Moderate Risk depending on many factors in the coming days. But IMO right now as I'm looking at the latest data a Slight Risk is the correct forecast at this time. Yes, Wednesday could be one of those bad days with significant and life threatening severe weather but it's too early for those details as it's not clear on how exactly this will set up. But it's Oklahoma folks and we know what can happen so lets prepare for the worst and hope for the best!
Here's the official risk for Wednesday from the Severe Storms Forecast Center in Norman Oklahoma. Here's a link...
The upper wave should move east of most of our area by Thursday afternoon taking the threat for severe weather with it to our east. Of course this is all subject to change so check back for the latest weather information on a regular basis.
Please stay tuned to the weather the next few days especially Wednesday afternoon / evening and make sure you have a severe weather safety plan ready to go before watches and warnings are issued. It's very important to be ready and know what your plan is well before storms get going so that you can act fast and be confident and calm. When you are calm and have a plan you make better decisions and this can often times be the difference between life and death. Please go over your safety plan with your family and loved ones and make sure you know where everyone is before severe weather strikes!