We've got two chances for thunderstorms in Oklahoma this week. The first chance is Tuesday afternoon / night in far eastern and southeastern Oklahoma and the second chance is Wednesday evening / night in central and eastern Oklahoma.
Tuesday...An upper storm system moves well north of Oklahoma but pushes a cold front southeast across Oklahoma during Tuesday afternoon. As the front moves into far eastern and southeastern Oklahoma late Tuesday afternoon / evening thunderstorms could develop along and ahead of the front. There is a slight risk for severe weather with the main threats large hail and damaging winds. Here's the latest risk area from the National Severe Storms Forecast Center. This risk area will obviously be updated as new data comes in.
Wednesday...The cold front stalls out across far southeastern Oklahoma Tuesday night and then redevelops back north into central Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon in response to another upper level disturbance moving east out of the rockies. So warmer and more humid air is pulled back north into central and eastern Oklahoma as winds increase from the south as the next system approaches from the west. The atmosphere will become quite unstable Wednesday afternoon / evening ahead of that next system with temps warming into the 70s, 80s and dew points rising into the 50s and lower 60s. In other words it becomes warm and humid ahead of next system and all we need is a trigger and look out, thunderstorms will likely form. The question is where is this all going to set up? How far northwest will the low level unstable air get by the time the next cold front / storm system arrives? Latest data suggest the warm and humid air will be near central Oklahoma as the next front arrives so I 35 and points east could very well be under a risk for severe weather Wednesday evening / night as the cold front sweeps southeast. Here's a look at some of the Sunday night 00z data for Wednesday and Wednesday night. The risk area is central and eastern Oklahoma. The yellow risk area could shift more northwest depending on many factors! Upper level winds showing that second trough, surface pressure indicating the boundary setting up in central Oklahoma, lifted index showing the very unstable air in central and eastern Oklahoma, and then watch the thunderstorms form rapidly Wednesday evening. This does not look like a tornado set up but large hail, damaging winds and heavy rainfall appear to be the main threats. However, can't out a small brief tornado in early stages of the event before thunderstorms line out into segments.
Please stay tuned to the weather Tuesday and especially Wednesday to see exactly how this plays out.