Here's the latest...New data tonight has the center of Tropical Depression Bill moving on a path slower and slightly more west than earlier predictions. Main threats flash flooding rains across central and eastern Oklahoma Wednesday through Thursday. A few isolated small brief tornadoes not out of the question.
The remnants of Tropical Storm Bill heading on a northward track early this Wednesday morning that will bring flash flooding rains to central and eastern Oklahoma Wednesday through Thursday before slowly moving northeast into Arkansas and Missouri Friday.
This has the potential to be a serious and life threatening flooding situation depending on the exact track and speed of the tropical system.
The heaviest rainfall and thus the most dangerous flooding will occur along and to the east of the exact track of the center of the tropical system.
Here's the latest track from the National Hurricane Center.
This track is not set in stone and in fact some new data Tuesday night is showing a slightly more westward and slower track.
The graphic posted above is the latest information available as I write this from the NWS OKC. Check the NWS for all the very latest updates during Wednesday.
Below I've posted some of the new data coming in late Tuesday night. I'm tracking the upper level reflection of the weakening tropical cyclone as it moves north and then northeast across southeastern and eastern Oklahoma Wednesday and Thursday. You can see the system is predicted to track near or just east of a Ardmore to OKC to Tulsa line.
Here's Wednesday evening moving slowly north across the red River.
Here's Thursday morning just southeast of OKC.
Here's it is moving just southeast of Tulsa Thursday evening.
Here's a real interesting low level wind forecast showing the circulation of the remnants of Bill just southeast of OKC Thursday morning. Tropical systems weaken rapidly in terms of wind as they move over land so the wind speeds are generally going to be 20-30 mph and gusty around the center as it moves up into central / eastern Oklahoma. Nothing to write home about but it's very interesting to see the remnants of Bill maintain it's structure this far inland! Sometimes we get small brief tornadoes within the northeastern quadrant of these weakening land falling tropical systems and it's not out of the question this go around. Although, the main threat is going to be flash flooding rains along and east of the track I can't totally rule out a brief small tornado or two.
Here's the rainfall totals through Thursday predicted from one our high resolution forecast models. I'm expecting 3-6 inches of rain possible along and east of a Duncan to OKC to Stillwater to Bartlesville line with higher amounts likely! This all depends on the exact track of the center of the tropical system and any wobble east or west will impact where the heaviest rain occurs. There will be a huge contrast / cutoff on the northwest edge of the rain shield. It's going to be very tricky to forecast exactly where the northwestern edge of the rain will set up but expect a major difference in rainfall totals over a very short distance on the northwestern edge of the storm. The northwest edge will be setting up near a Duncan to OKC to Stillwater to Bartlesville line so in other words the heavy rain is not a done deal in these cities. However, areas further east and southeast of OKC and Tulsa are in the bullseye or the sweet spot. Portions of southeastern and eastern Oklahoma could receive rainfall amounts in excess of 6 inches! Obviously, this is a very serious flooding threat and everyone should be watching the weather extremely closely Wednesday through Thursday! Looks like western Oklahoma is missing out for sure.