Updated to bring you the latest new Day 1 Risk from the Severe Storms Forecast Center. The slight risk has been upgraded to MODERATE RISK for portions of central, northeastern and east central Oklahoma. Expecting rapid thunderstorm development around 4pm-6pm along cold front from near OKC to Tulsa and then building southwest down to around Lawton. Then the strong to severe thunderstorms head east into eastern Oklahoma with the main threats very large hail, damaging winds, lightning and locally heavy rainfall. I can't rule out a tornado or two before the thunderstorms evolve into line segments or a squall line within the first few hours of development. It's a low tornado threat but not zero and the most likely area for a small brief tornado is in the moderate risk area just northeast and east of surface low from near OKC to near Tulsa and points just south. Very large damaging hail and high winds main threat.
Last nights blog....The evening 00z data is in and the over all weather system is a tad slower than earlier runs which means the front is just a little slower getting to OKC which means the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms is increasing for OKC Wednesday evening!
Here's the latest 00z NAM run showing the cold front approaching a Lawton to OKC to Tulsa line around 7pm Wednesday evening. This is slightly slower compared to earlier forecasts from the last 24 hours. I'm expecting very unstable atmospheric conditions ahead of the front and rapid thunderstorm development is likely by 6pm as the front approaches central Oklahoma.
The main threat still appears to be large hail, damaging winds, lightning and locally heavy rainfall. I can't totally rule out a small brief tornado or two before the thunderstorms evolve into line segments or a squall line but the tornado threat is low. Not zero but low.
By 10pm the severe threat will be pushing east and southeast of the OKC Metro across eastern and southeastern Oklahoma. Behind the cold front gusty north winds and cool showers are likely to linger through the early morning hours on Thursday.
The combination of cold late winter like temps aloft riding over warm muggy spring air at the surface has me concerned for very strong explosive thunderstorm updrafts that could support very large hail stones. When these t'storms start popping get ready to move cars and anything else outside OUT OF THE WAY to avoid potential hail damage. Stay tuned to the weather around suppertime Wednesday.