As the storm system moves closer the details on the forecast become clearer. Although certainly not set in stone and this is a tough forecast! But I'm getting a better handle on this. I think.
Here's some good news! This storm event is kinda disjunct. Here's the upper wind flow from this mornings data for Wednesday afternoon. You can see the upper trough to our west with strong west southwest flow aloft coming right over the central and southern plains. Normally this would be a very significant severe weather pattern for Oklahoma.
But a closer look shows that the dry line is removed east from where the main surface low is developing in southwestern Kansas. The dry line is way east and this is partly due to a wave of low pressure near Kansas City but also could be in response to the long term drought in the western high plains which is allowing the dry line to mix out further east. Either way the surface features are not totally matched up with the upper level pattern. This is good news for Oklahoma in that conditions are not as favorable for widespread severe weather as it could be! Still under a Slight Risk but not as high as otherwise might be!
So I've looked at all the new data this morning and this is what I've come up with.
Both today and Wednesday there is the threat for severe thunderstorms. The most likely day for more widespread severe weather still seems to be Wednesday evening as the main storm system moves east into the plains. On both days the coverage of thunderstorms is greater the more north you go and less the more south you go. Any thunderstorms that develop along the dry line / cold front or any other boundaries have the potential to become severe with the main threats large hail, damaging winds, lightning and tornadoes!
Here are my quick maps for today and tomorrow.
For the storm trackers X marks the spot I would go for the best chance of seeing a tornado.
Here are the brand new Day1 ( today ) & Day2 ( Wed ) risks from the Severe Storms Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma. Very similar to my maps. Greatest coverage of severe thunderstorms and over all threat both days from northern OK north northeast into KS & MO. Less coverage further south down through central OK but it only takes one storm!!! Coverage means nothing if that one storm hits your home! So please stay weather aware and have your severe weather safety plan ready to go! The threat will shove east on Thursday.